AI is already capable of replacing nearly 12% of the U.S. workforce, according to a recent Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) study.
This was determined by the Iceberg Index, which is a “skills-centered measure of workforce exposure in the AI economy,” according to a research paper. The tool was created by MIT in partnership with Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), and it can reportedly predict how the U.S. workforce can be impacted by AI and related policy, according to CNBC.
“Project Iceberg enables policymakers and business leaders to identify exposure hotspots, prioritize training and infrastructure investments, and test interventions before committing billions to implementation,” the report said, per CNBC.
At this time, the index does not show when or where jobs will be lost. It was used to analyze 151 million workers, covering more than 32,000 skills across 923 occupations across the country, and assessed whether AI is already capable of taking over those skills, CNBC notes.
AI is already conducting work that had typically been ideal for recent college graduates.
“AI systems now generate more than a billion lines of code each day, prompting companies to restructure hiring pipelines and reduce demand for entry-level programmers,” the researchers wrote, per CBS News. “These observable changes in technology occupations signal a broader reorganization of work that extends beyond software development.”
The findings also showed that AI is beneficial in health care, as it can relieve staff from specific paperwork tasks, allowing them to focus more on patients. In finance, it also streamlines documentation.
“[F]inancial analysts will not disappear, but AI systems may demonstrate capability across significant portions of document-processing and routine analysis work,” the researchers said, according to CBS News. “This reshapes how roles are structured and which skills remain in demand, without necessarily reducing headcount.”
Overall, the findings indicate that AI can replace $1.2 trillion in wages, or 11.7% of the U.S. workforce. Industries also included manufacturing and logistics, per CBS News.
CNBC reports that simulations of the index have already been run in North Carolina, Utah, and Tennessee, which released an AI action plan in November.
Prasanna Balaprakash, ORNL director and co-leader of the research, also served on the Tennessee Artificial Intelligence Advisory Council, which published the action plan. He said that while the health care, nuclear energy, manufacturing, and transportation sectors require human input, the state is looking to navigate how to consider AI assistants and robotics.
The intention for the index is to make it easier for states to prepare for the impact on the workforce as they adopt these technologies.
North Carolina state Sen. DeAndrea Salvador, who was involved in the project, explained, per CNBC, “It is really aimed towards getting in and starting to try out different scenarios.”

